Nigerians would have to grapple with a worsening cost of living as food inflation climbed alongside skyrocketing fuel and energy prices.
This comes at a time President Bola Ahmed Tinubu visits the United Kingdom on the invitation of King Charles III on Tuesday.
Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index and Inflation data released on Monday showed that the country’s food inflation rose to 12.12 percent in February 2026, up from 8.89 percent in the previous month.
NBS attributed the month-on-month rise in food inflation to increases in the average prices of beans, carrots, okazi leaf, cassava tuber, crayfish, millet flour, yam flour, snails, and avenger (ogbono/apon)—dried, unground—and cowpeas.
Meanwhile, headline inflation declined slightly by 0.04 percent to 15.06 percent in February, down from 15.10 percent in January. However, NBS’s data showed that prices increased at a faster pace on a monthly basis. The inflation rate stood at 2.01 percent in February, higher than the -2.88 percent recorded in January.
Fuel price continues to increase nationwide
February’s food inflation rise came at a time fuel prices climbed to as high as N1,330 per liter from between N875 and N900 per liter before the Iran-United States-Israel war escalation, which began on February 28th, 2026.
This comes as Dangote Refinery last week hiked its gantry petrol price for the fourth time to N1,175 per liter at the back of crude oil prices above $100 per barrel.
Dangote Refinery’s petrol hike triggered a retail fuel hike of N100 per liter by MRS filling stations and N50 by Optima Filling Stations to N1,267 and N1,270 per liter, respectively, in Abuja as of Monday.
Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited retail outlets and other filling stations, such as Raniol, AA Rano, Empire Energy, NIPCO, and Shema dispense petrol between N1,261 and N1,330 per liter. The fuel price hike has pushed transportation fares up nationwide in the last two weeks.
Why Nigeria’s food prices rose – Economist,Teriba
Economic experts have explained the recent increase in Nigeria’s food prices in February despite a slight decline in the country’s overall inflation rate.
Speaking with DAILY POST, popular Nigerian economist and Chief Executive of Economic Associates, Ayo Teriba, said the rise in food prices in February should not come as a surprise, noting that seasonal economic activities often influence price movements early in the year.
“Well, food prices rising in February should not be much of a surprise.
“It could be, you know, a combination of seasonal factors. It could be partly seasonal. Then it could also reflect that, you know, after the holidays there are usually a lot of activities in January.
“The prices typically would moderate in January and begin to pick up as economic activity picks up in February,” he said.
Teriba explained that the uptick in food prices could reflect normal economic patterns rather than a clear sign of renewed inflationary pressure.
“So a bit of an upswing in food prices in February will come as no surprise, you know, to anyone. And before you start saying that the food prices are rising, remember that they fell in January.
He further noted that the economy often slows at the start of the year before gradually picking up momentum.
“So the economy is still asleep. So the economy begins to keep up in food by February.
“So that’s one seasonal factor. It’s not a geographic season,” he added.
Teriba also raised concerns about inconsistencies in the inflation data released by the NBS, pointing out that the agency had earlier revised previously released inflation figures.
“Well, even the fact that NBS itself had come out to say it made a mistake last year. And it, you know, reannounced all of the inflation it released throughout last year.
“The NBS is not helping its unpredictability. But again, I would say that one or two more months will establish a pattern even with the NBS factor,” he said.
According to him, the current fluctuations in food prices could either signal the beginning of another inflationary trend or merely reflect short-term volatility.
“So right now let’s just note that food prices are showing volatility after two and a half years.
“After two and a half years of clear trends, from mid-2023 to end-2024, it was accelerating nonstop. From end-2024 to end-2025, it was decelerating nonstop. As a matter of fact, up to January 2025, it was decelerating.
“Now this is a departure. We don’t know if this is the onset of another long trend of acceleration or if this is just fluctuation. So it’s too soon to conclude,” he stated.
Nigeria’s headline inflation decline offers no comfort for households – Prof. Oyedokun
Also speaking, a professor of accounting and finance at Lead City University, Godwin Oyedokun, said the marginal decline in headline inflation offers little comfort to households struggling with the rising cost of living.
“The slight decline in Nigeria’s headline inflation from 15.10 percent in January to 15.06 percent in February appears positive on the surface, but the marginal nature of the decline suggests that the improvement is largely statistical rather than structural,” Oyedokun said.
“In practical terms, the change of 0.04 percentage points is too small to translate into any meaningful relief for households. Inflation remains relatively high, and the cost of living pressure on Nigerians persists,” he added.
He warned that the increase in food inflation to 12.12 percent is more concerning because food accounts for a significant portion of household spending.
“More concerning is the increase in food inflation to 12.12 percent, because food constitutes the largest share of household expenditure in Nigeria, especially for low- and middle-income earners.
“When food prices rise, it directly erodes purchasing power and deepens poverty levels. This trend signals that many families may continue to struggle to meet basic nutritional needs despite the slight moderation in overall inflation,” he said.
Oyedokun attributed the rise in food prices to several structural challenges affecting the agricultural sector.
“High energy costs, including petrol and electricity tariffs, raise production and transportation expenses for farmers, processors, and distributors.
“In addition, persistent insecurity in major agricultural belts disrupts farming activities, reduces output, and discourages investment in agriculture,” he explained.
He added that logistics challenges and post-harvest losses are also contributing to supply constraints within the food sector.
According to him, the situation reflects what economists describe as cost-push inflation, where rising production costs are passed on to consumers.
“The implication is that the economy may be experiencing what economists describe as cost-push inflation, where rising production costs are transmitted to consumers.
“Even if monetary authorities succeed in moderating aggregate inflation, food prices may continue to rise unless supply-side constraints are addressed.”
Oyedokun called for stronger policy actions to address the structural drivers of food inflation.
“First, the government must intensify efforts to improve security in agricultural regions to enable farmers to return safely to their farms.
“Second, investments in agricultural infrastructure, storage, and transportation systems are essential to reduce post-harvest losses and improve market efficiency,” he stated.
He added that targeted energy and logistics support for agriculture could help ease cost pressures in the food supply chain.
“Finally, policymakers must focus not only on inflation figures but also on real welfare indicators, such as household purchasing power, employment, and food accessibility.
“Sustainable inflation control requires a coordinated approach involving fiscal, monetary, and structural reforms.
“In essence, while the marginal decline in headline inflation offers a technical sign of stability, the rise in food inflation underscores the persistent hardship facing ordinary Nigerians and highlights the urgent need for stronger supply-side and social protection policies.