The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has commended the Federal Government for adopting more conservative and credible assumptions in the newly released 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF).
CPPE described the MTEF as a “welcome shift toward fiscal realism.”
In a policy brief signed by its Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Muda Yusuf, the CPPE said the framework presented by the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, responds appropriately to global economic uncertainties, Nigeria’s recurring revenue shortfalls, and persistent challenges in crude oil production.
According to the organization, one of the biggest weaknesses of Nigeria’s budgeting process has been chronic revenue underperformance driven by overly ambitious macroeconomic projections. It noted that the 2025 budget particularly suffered from unrealistic assumptions, leading to implementation failures and weakening public confidence.
The shift to more realistic forecasts in the 2026–2028 MTEF, CPPE said, is therefore “an important step” toward restoring credibility to the national budget.
The policy group welcomed the adoption of dual oil production parameters—2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd) as the technical target and 1.80 mbpd as the budget benchmark—calling it an improvement over previous estimates.
However, it argued that the benchmark remains slightly optimistic given years of underproduction, theft, vandalism, and operational constraints. CPPE recommended a more conservative benchmark of 1.6 mbpd.
The 2026 oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel was also acknowledged as more cautious than the $75 projected for 2025, but CPPE warned it still exceeds global forecasts from the EIA, Goldman Sachs, and the World Bank, which range from $55 to $60. Aligning the benchmark closer to $60 per barrel, it said, would offer stronger fiscal stability.
The CPPE described the proposed exchange rate of N1,540/$ for 2026 as a realistic reflection of likely foreign exchange pressures, especially with the 2026 election cycle approaching.
While a weaker naira raises project costs, the organization noted that it also boosts naira-denominated revenue and therefore offers a credible foundation for planning.
The think tank said the projected GDP growth rate of 4.68 percent is optimistic but not harmful to fiscal planning. More importantly, it commended the downward adjustment of the 2026 revenue projection to N34.33 trillion—a 16 percent reduction from the previous year’s estimate—which it said demonstrates improved fiscal prudence.
However, CPPE warned that debt sustainability remains a major concern, with N15.91 trillion—representing 46 percent of projected revenue—allocated to debt servicing in 2026. This level of debt burden, it said, will continue to restrict investment in infrastructure, social services, and security.
The organization criticized the delayed submission of the MTEF to the National Assembly, noting that the Fiscal Responsibility Act requires it to be submitted at least four months before the new fiscal year. Late presentation, it said, limits legislative scrutiny and undermines evidence-based debate on the budget.
CPPE urged lawmakers to ensure fiscal discipline by rejecting attempts to inflate expenditure or introduce unrealistic revenue assumptions during deliberations.
“Budget credibility depends not only on the Executive but also on the Legislature’s commitment to evidence-based decision-making,” the policy group said.
While describing the 2026–2028 MTEF as a positive step, CPPE stressed that deeper reforms are still required to entrench fiscal stability and rebuild public trust.
“It called for sustained commitment to transparent fiscal planning, efficient public spending, and realistic macroeconomic assumptions.